Without question, this is a huge blow to the Wizards organization. But how much of a blow? Arenas still has 80 million dollars remaining on his contract. That kind of a commitment to a player can mean salary cap death for a franchise that now finds itself without the services of its star. Unless they can unload Arenas' contract, the Wizards have no shot at signing one of the marquis free agents in the 2010 class (see Lebron James, Dwayne Wade, etc.). The Atlanta Falcons got rid of Michael Vick when he left jail for dogfighting; why can't the Wizards do the same with Arenas?
The main difference between this situation and the Michael Vick case is that NBA player contracts are guaranteed, while NFL contracts are not. The Falcons didn't even need a reason to drop Michael Vick (though they did if they wanted his signing bonus back). The Wizards will only be able to dump Arenas if the Uniform Player Contract, which is negotiated between the NBA and the NBA Players association and signed by every player in the NBA, gives them an excuse to.
As you probably imagine, there is a provision in the Uniform Player Contract which covers this sort of situation. Section 5 of the U.P.C. is the "morals" section. It specifically requires every player to "to conduct himself on and off the court according to the highest standards of honesty, citizenship, and sportsmanship." The U.P.C. goes on to allow teams to "terminate" players who "fail, refuse or neglect" to obey the morals section. So, Arenas committed a crime ("an act of moral turpitude," in the words of the U.P.C.), and the Wizards can fire him, right?
Not so fast. Under the U.P.C., any action the team takes against a player must be "reasonable." In other words, they can't get out from under a big contract by firing a player for speeding, for instance. Whether a particular action is reasonable will ultimately be determined by an arbitrator. And arbitrators have made it pretty tough for NBA teams to get rid of players in the past. For example, when Latrell Sprewell choked his coach, P.J. Carlesimo, the Golden State Warriors tried to void his contract. The arbitrator wouldn't let them. Perhaps bringing a bunch of firearms to work is worse than strangling your coach into unconsciousness, but it's far from a sure thing that the arbitrator will let the Wizards drop Arenas.
However, things would be very different if Arenas is given jail time when he's sentenced in March. Now, I've never been to jail, but I assume that they don't let you out to go to basketball games. One of the requirements of the U.P.C., believe it or not, is that the player play when he's supposed to play. If he isn't available to play, either because he chooses not to, or gets his butt thrown in the slammer, he's in direct violation of his contract. And unlike bad conduct, showing up is an either/or proposition; either you show up, or you don't. And if you don't, your team can terminate your contract.
So, if the Wizards really want to get rid of Gilbert Arenas, they better hope he gets jail time. If not, it's at best a 50/50 proposition whether an arbitrator will let them get out from under the 100 million bucks they still owe him.
