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2009 Rule V Draftees

As the “best of” lists are plentiful, fans and the media are quick to remind us all how they “saw it coming”, how they were the first on a particular young player’s band wagon. Writers in every genre will be drafting their predictions for the next year and decade. Everyone loves to find the underdog, whether it is the hot rookie, a new dining trend, a commodity or company on the stock market or maybe even a fashion trend.

Go to a minor league baseball game and listen to the season ticket holders as they regale you with stories of whom they saw play before making it to the big show. Watch the supposed autograph collectors lining the field with multiple items to be signed with the hopes they will strike it rich.

However, amidst the frenzy of free agent signings, mega-trades and calls of collusion, let's look ahead and predict what may happen with some of the 2009 Rule V draftees. Keep in mind that no one will know when any/all of these players are waived or designated for assignment.

The Yankees appear to be starting the new decade the way they entered the ‘00s: with a championship and the hope for a repeat. So far they haven’t acquired a former CY young winner but they have been active with headline deals. That is why it is a little odd that they have made only their second foray into the Rule V world. In the past decade they have only drafted one player, Josh Phelps, in 2006.

This past December the Bronx Bombers acquired Dodger outfielder Jamie Hoffmann from the Nationals (to complete the Brian Bruney trade). As of today, Nick Swisher, Curtis Granderson, Brett Gardner and Hoffmann are the only outfielders on the 40-man roster. There is nothing to stop them from signing another big name player but that would still allow Hoffmann a chance to win a job in spring training.

In six minor league seasons, the right-handed Hoffmann batted .285 with a .357 OBP. In 2009, he spent 14 games with the Dodgers hitting .182 . While no one would expect him to crack the starting lineup, he would be a very competent spot starter/ late inning replacement. Whereas Gardner is more of a top-of-the-order scorer, Hoffmann is a run producer. He can play all three outfield positions and is very quick and athletic for his size, possibly a by-product of his hockey days (he was an 8th round pick of Florida Hurricanes in 2003). Should he make the 25-man roster out of camp, the Yankees could afford to “hide” him on the roster and watch him develop, or they could designate him for assignment when a bigger fish comes along (as they did with Phelps, who hit .263 with two home runs and 12 RBI in 36 games in 2007). Phelps, however, had already played in 352 major league games at that point. Hoffmann is still developing.

Pittsburgh chose Florida outfielder John Raynor with the second pick. A sixth-place team like the Pirates has room to take chances on young players. With the emergence of Andrew McCutcheon and Garrett Jones there is still room for another young outfielder. In four minor league seasons Raynor’s numbers were impressive (.298/.382/.453. with 141/170 stolen bases). His minor league numbers are comparable with Nyjer Morgan.Garrett Jones (Getty Images)

More importantly, he is younger (having just turned 26) than both Delwyn Young, 27, and Brandon Moss, 26. And, while Lastings Milledge is younger at 24, this trio has yet to distinguish themselves at the major league level. None of the three possess Raynor’s base-stealing ability or range in the outfield. While Young and Moss had better power numbers in the minors, they have yet to show it in the majors.

Based on the Pirates recent history with Rule V picks (Veal), Raynor will likely be given chance to win a spot on the 25-man roster this March. With the addition of Raynor at the top of the order, Jones’ run production could see a drastic increase. Pittsburgh will certainly be more competitive, even if their record does not improve.

The Rangers acquired LHP Ben Snyder from the Orioles, who drafted him from the San Francisco. Matt Harrison, C.J Wilson and Derek Holland appear to be the only game-ready left-handed pitchers on the 40-man roster right now. Snyder’s minor league numbers are pretty solid. Until 2009 he was used almost exclusively as a starter. All but five of his 34 appearances came out of the pen in ‘09. He finished 4-4 with a 2.88 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, one save and one complete game in 97 innings. While a spot in the bullpen is the most likely place for Snyder, he may provide Mike Maddux with extra insurance due health concerns for Matt Harrison, Brendan McCarthy, Eric Hurley and newly acquired Rich Harden. Given the financial uncertainty of the Rangers’ ownership, he may be an inexpensive alternative.

Not surprisingly, the next player chosen is LHP Edgar Osuna, formerly of the Braves now with Kansas City. Two things are immediately working in Osuna’s favor: First, the Royals rotation (with the exception of CY Young winner Zack Greinke) had a combined 5.41 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. It could be argued that Luke Hochaver (7-13, 6.55 ERA) and Brian Bannister (7-12 and 4.73 ERA) are still developing and that their jobs are safe for now. Neither Kyle Davies (8-9, 5.27 ERA) nor Gil Meche (6-10, 5.09 ERA) should consider himself immune to competition.

In four seasons in the Braves organization, Osuna has compiled a 22-19 record with nine saves. His strikeout numbers are not eye-popping, but he averages only two walks over nine innings. He may be best suited for relief, joining Joakim Soria, a great Rule V success story.

K.C. selected Soria (S.D.) in 2006 and he had an immediate impact, going 2-3 with 17 saves and a 2.48 ERA in 2007. In three seasons with the Royals he has converted 89 of 99 save opportunities and has a 2.09 ERA with 210 strikeouts in 189.1 innings. Osuna is only 22 years old and could develop while the rest of the young royals find their feet. Should he have a strong spring training, it would be in the Royals best interest to have him on the 25-man roster and send him to the minors in 2011 if necessary.

Arizona pitcher Hector Ambriz was drafted by the Indians. He hasn’t posted great numbers (28-35, 4.42 ERA) in his four minor league seasons, but, at 25, may be ready to compete for a spot in Cleveland. With the recent upheaval, the Tribe is looking to revamp the 40-man roster and 2010 may be a good year for Ambriz should he have a productive spring in Goodyear.

Yankee LHP Zach Kroenke was taken by the Diamondbacks with the sixth pick. 2009 marks the second time that the 25-year-old was taken in the Rule V draft. Last year he was taken by the Marlins but was returned to the Yankees. Florida may have felt comfortable with their staff and felt reluctant to take a chance on a rule five draftee.

This year, he might be too tempting to pass. In 2008-09 he was spectacular (14-1, 2.36 ERA, 4 saves, 109 K and 58 walks in 126 innings pitched) making all but two of his 77 appearances in relief. The Dbacks 40-man roster is primarily right-handed, so a southpaw with that pedigree would be hard to ignore. Even if they were to bring in an experienced left handed reliever he could still earn a spot.

Cleveland Lhp Chuck Lofgren was selected by the Brewers with the 11th pick. With Manny Parra and free agent Randy Wolf in tow, Milwaukee appears to have the requisite number of lefties in the rotation. Other than those two, only Yovani Gallardo has proven that he can pitch quality innings. Veterans Jeff Suppan and Dave Bush are coming off sub-par seasons. Unless they sign some other front-of-the-rotation pitchers, the Brewers have to look at everyone who comes to Maryvale.

Lofgren’s 45-39 record, 3.97 ERA and .8 Hr/9 innings is hard to overlook in light of hitter-friendly Miller Park. Since 119 of Lofgren’s 132 minor league appearances were starts it doesn’t seem likely that he will be moved to the Milwaukee pen. The unknown in the equation is new pitching coach guru, Rick Peterson.

With the historic signing of free agent Marlon Byrd, the selection of St. Louis pitcher Mike Parisi pales in comparison. On the surface, the Cubs selection of Parisi would appear to be risky at best given that the 26-year-old, right-handed pitcher is coming off reconstructive elbow surgery. In six minor league seasons with the Cardinals, he compiled a 40-39 record with a 4.27 ERA (all 115 of his appearances were starts). In 2008, he went 0-4 with an 8.22 ERA in twelve games with the Cardinals.

The reason Parisi in this group is because the Cubs will most likely give him a long look in Mesa this spring for two reasons: First, with the departure of Rich Harden and delayed start of Ted Lilly, the Cubs’ pitching staff is in disarray. Second, Cubs Minor League pitching coordinator Mark Riggins held that same position with the Cardinals from 1996-2007 and is very familiar with Parisi.

Furthermore, the two were members of the 2007 Mesa Solar Sox of the Arizona Fall League (as were Cubs prospects). Don’t be surprised if the Cubs and Cardinals worked out a deal where the Cubs would retain the rights to Parisi should he show promise in spring training.