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Ike it or Not...

Among their recent success, all the excitement for the Mets has been centered on one man. His name is Ike Davis. The newest member of the Mets organization is a long-awaited one. With the team catapulting with his arrival, Mets fans have finally gotten what they have long wanted.

 

Ike opened up the 2010 season in Triple-A Buffalo. In his abbreviated playing time, he hit .364 with two home runs. As the Mets began to falter in the beginning of the season, they quickly called for help.

 

In his first 10 games as a New York Met, Davis has hit .355 with one home run, six RBIs and three doubles.

 

While Davis has been a great addition to this Mets’ club, he has presented some problems in the early going. He has a flaw in his swing that, when picked up by Major League pitchers, can easily be exploited. If that occurs, Ike will be in serious trouble.

 

Consider this visual below that shows two photos of Davis in an at-bat against Philadelphia starter Kyle Kendrick. The first photo shows Davis as the pitcher is in the wind-up, while the second photo shows Davis as the pitch approaches home plate.

 

 

As illustrated above, Davis drastically drops his hands when getting ready to hit. He also severely coils his hands around his back. Both these things will result in problems. The most obvious being that when faced with an off-speed pitch he will not be able to adjust.

 

Recognizing this problem, he has still had success in the Majors. So what’s the problem? 

 

The problem is that the flaw in Davis’ swing has just recently been exploited. A week ago, Davis saw a variety of pitches, all at the league average. Now, Davis has seen a fastball 41.2% of the time, well below the league average, while he has seen a change-up 10.8% of the time, well above the league average.

 

Those numbers show that pitchers have recently picked up on the flaw in Davis’ swing. The numbers are also there to back it up.

 

Consider Davis’ wFB/C (a stat that measures your success against 100 fastballs). Davis has a 2.75 wFB/C, well above average. Now, look at his wCH/C (against 100 change-ups), which is -0.92, well below the league average.

 

In the early going, evidently Davis is already having trouble hitting off-speed pitches. As more pitchers begin to pick up on this flaw, it will continue to be exploited and the numbers will significantly decline to a below average level.

 

However, if Davis can fix his swing he presents many promising qualities.

 

Davis is a very selective hitter. He swings at just 24.4% of pitches he sees that are outside the strike zone, well below the league average. Furthermore, he swings at 71.9% of the pitches he sees that are in the strike zone, well above the league average.

 

Ike’s early success is encouraging and can only be preserved if his swing is fixed. The Mets should be excited about what he can present for this team. However, it is important to stress the significance of breaking this habit before it becomes unbreakable. If not, the excitement and the success will fade.

 

jess.coleman@classactsports.com 

twitter.com/jesskcoleman 

 

Tampa's Surging Rays

With most of the baseball pundits spending their time pontificating about the Yankees’ fast start, or the early Red Sox woes, people are missing out on one of the best stories in the young Tampa Bay Rays. Historically overlooked and left behind by the larger market teams, Tampa is out to prove once again it is a World Series contender with effective pitching, speed and explosive offensive capabilities. After flirting with a championship in 2008 and missing the postseason last year, the Rays are making their presence known throughout the league as a formidable opponent, demanding to be taken seriously once and for all. 


If asked the question, “Which team leads the AL in runs,” most people would probably guess the Yankees, right? Wrong. Tampa Bay currently leads the AL in runs scored, and ties for second with Minnesota for the best record in baseball. The Rays also have the best road record in the majors at 8-1, partially thanks to the scorching hot seven-game winning streak which included a sweep of the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. Yes, they played the woefully poor Orioles twice already, but this team is still a group of which to be cautious. After finally losing a game in Chicago, they immediately responded with a 12-0 pounding of Mark Buehrle, who pitched a perfect game in his previous outing last season against Tampa. Keeping in stride with the Yankees, this young, energetic team is looking to stay in position for the AL East while others are already falling behind. 

The Rays’ offense also seems to be undeterred by upper-echelon pitching, successfully taking down starters such as Javier Vasquez, John Lackey and Jon Lester. As a team, they’ve managed to remain in the upper level of production, ranking sixth in the AL for home runs, batting average and on-base percentage. B.J. Upton, Evan Longoria and Carlos Pena have been effective, and are currently all tied for third in RBI with 13 each. For a cherry on top, add in Tampa’s league-leading 18 stolen bases and you’ve created a pretty scary offense in the early going.

Of course, all the offense in the world can’t save a franchise without quality pitching, which Tampa seems to be receiving plenty of throughout April. Matt Garza’s incredible performances leave him with a 0.75 ERA and three wins, both tops in the AL. Wade Davis and Jeff Niemann have also held their own, keeping their ERAs below three, and striking out 20 batters combined so far. Closer Rafael Soriano is filling in nicely for injured J.P. Howell, with four saves in as many opportunities and allowing only two earned runs.

Not only is Tampa’s quick start impressive, but it’s absolutely imperative for them to piece together a quality season this year. With Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena on the final year of their contracts, this could be the best opportunity for them to make a splash before dealing with expensive free agency deals. Crawford will obviously draw large offers from teams like New York, who will easily be able to outbid a smaller market team such as the Rays. The likelihood of losing both these players in 2011 is fairly certain, which would take a huge chunk out of their offensive capabilities, especially without Crawford’s explosive speed and base stealing opportunism. “Strike while the iron is hot” appears to be Tampa’s motto in the early going of 2010.
 

Don't Count Out Boston... Yet

In 1991, the Minnesota Twins began the season in Oakland with the common dream to win a championship. Thirteen games later, they stood seventh in their division with a 4-9 record and little hope for the future. Six months later, the Minnesota Twins won their second championship.

altThe Boston Red Sox stand right now where the Twins stood in April of ‘91. Both teams started off with a 4-9 record, and both teams had a realistic dream of a championship turned to dust.

The Red Sox were swept by the Tampa Bay Rays in a four-game set that concluded on Monday. For Boston, many problems emerged that are points of concern but should certainly not be exaggerated. The Red Sox will fall out of contention if these problems are not fixed, but there is no reason for concern just yet.

Jon Lester has to be one of Boston’s biggest concerns. He has anchored the Sox staff along with Josh Beckett for many years now, and his success is essential for the overall success of the team.

Lester has started the season with an 8.44 ERA in three starts. He has yet to win a game, and has lost two. As dismal as that may seem, it is not out of the ordinary. Over the course of his career, April has always been the worst month for Lester. If he has worked it out in the past, he will work it out now.

One of the biggest problems for the Red Sox so far has been their lack of ability to throw out runners. Jason Varitek is no longer a great defensive catcher, and Victor Martinez has never been known as one either. The Red Sox have given up 21 stolen bases this year -- the most in all of baseball.

However, it is likely that those numbers are inflated since the Red Sox just played the Rays, who are known as one of the best running teams in baseball. Although they gave up many stolen bases last year as well, it was never as much of a problem for them as it has been so far in 2010. As more games are played, it will likely become less of an issue for Boston.

Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon is off to the worst start of his career. April has always been a strong month for him, which has not held up in 2010. The biggest concern for him has been his inability to throw strikes, as evident by his .40 SO/BB ratio. He has been a strike thrower his entire career, which makes this outburst of walks troubling for the Red Sox.

The Red Sox, just like every other team, have some definite concerns. The good news is that they can all be worked out. As the hype and anticipation has grown around the Red Sox each year, the expectations have grown as well, which has inflated the concern around every problem. However, no team has ever played a full season without a bump in the road; and just like the 1991 Minnesota Twins, the 2010 Red Sox should not be counted out…yet.

jess.coleman@classactsports.com
twitter.com/nycoleman

 

Best In The Business

After struggling with a sore back all spring, Albert Pujols has jumped out to an incredibly fast start this season, proving to the world why he is the best baseball player in today’s game. Through nine games and only 35 at-bats, Pujols already has 14 hits, 15 RBI, five home runs, a slugging percentage of .886, and an average of .400 with two multiple home run games already.

Over the last five to seven years the Cardinals have been playing competitive baseball come September.  This can be attributed to great coaching from the legendary Tony LaRussa, a great pitching coach and the hitting machine in Pujols, sitting right in the middle of their lineup. Fans in St. Louis are in for a special treat every time they head to the ballpark to watch the Cardinals play, having the luxury of watching and cheering for potentially one of the best hitters Major League Baseball has ever seen.

Everything about Pujols’ game is textbook. If you are a parent and are trying to teach your children to become good baseball players, all you need to do is pop on the television and have them watch Albert.

Offensively, not much needs to be said as his numbers speak for themselves, especially after winning his third MVP award since 2001. If you analyze his swing you can easily tell why he has had so much success at the plate. His hands, legs and head remain extremely patient as he dissects each and every pitch. When he decides to unload his hands and legs into the baseball he remains extremely balanced and centered, exploding through the ball.

Pujols is also pretty good with the glove at first base.  He currently has a career fielding percentage of .993. Remember that in his early years the Cardinals had him playing left field and third base.

Pujols only seems to get better and more comfortable with each passing season, and is usually in the top 5 in MVP voting. After getting off to such a quick start, this could possibly be one of the best years of his already unbelievable career. If that’s the case, the numbers will be off the charts, as he has already put together a season where he hit .331, belted 49 home runs and racked up 137 RBI. Pay close attention to Mr. Pujols because we could be witnessing the best baseball player of all time.

 

Is It That Time Again?

Coach Jerry Manuel trying to figure things out (Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)Mets' Brass On Notice.

We're one week into the new season and the frustrated Mets fan base is already calling for Omar Minaya and Jerry Manuel to, putting it politely, um, leave.
 
FanFave believes it's none too early to put these two on notice.  
 
Now, cooler heads will say, “FanFave, are you kidding me? We’re only six games into the season.” Well, here it is, yes, six games into the season and the Mets are 2-4. More importantly, those were six games at HOME.  Three of those games were against the Nationals.  The last game was a loss to the Nationals without Ryan Zimmerman, with a pitching matchup of Johan Santana against Livan Hernandez.  UNACCEPTABLE!  

The Mets are now facing a six-game road trip with stops in St. Louis and Colorado.  The Mets are looking at being a below .500 ball club.  After last season, the Mets needed to come out of the gate angry. I believe the marketing campaign is “Team Redemption,” right? Well, not so much...
 
FanFave already has several bones to pick with manager Jerry Manuel:

 
Ike Davis, Jenrry Mejia, and Mike Jacobs
Manuel says Davis has started in the minors because he's looking at doing what’s best for Davis’ long-term, but in a completely contradictory fashion he has the Mets’ best arm, 20-year-old Mejia, pitching in the bullpen with no role and no steady work. Mejia could and, in FanFave’s opinion, should be developing in the minors, pitching as a starter every fifth day.

FanFave believes it should be the opposite. Davis should be here playing every day at first base and Mejia should be pitching in Double-A, as a starter. When Jacobs got hurt that was all the reasoning the Mets needed to give the job to Ike.  Instead, Jacobs is barely hitting his weight out of the gate.
 
Lineup
Let’s just stay with the lineup.  The one hitter who has come out smoking is Jeff Francoeur.  I don't know…would it make sense to bat “Frenchy” higher in the order, maybe in the two-hole instead of Alex Cora or Luis Castillo? It’s just a thought.
 
In my Mets preview (GOOD, BAD and UGLY), I touched upon Cora and Fernando Tatis in the BAD section.  What has to be done to keep Manuel from thinking he needs to keep finding at-bats for Tatis?  And, seriously, I don't get the hoopla surrounding Cora.  Even Gary Cohen and Ron Darling are in on it.  Cora cannot hit one iota.  He has zero range at shortstop, and his defense is adequate at second base.  Does that mean he should be getting this much playing time?  Wouldn't the Mets be better served letting Ruben Tejada play every day at second?  He’s already proven he's a better defensive shortstop than Cora.  I'm sure Ruben can also develop into a really great guy to replace Cora's “great guy” skills as well.

CF: Gary Matthews Jr. over Angel Pagan?
When did Matthews win the center field job over Pagan?  When Reyes was out, wouldn't Pagan have been a better option with his speed?  Regardless, Pagan is more of an offensive threat than Matthews.
 
FanFave and the rest of the Mets fan base are very intelligent.  We get it that we just got Jose Reyes back.  We get it that Carlos Beltran is out, but yesterday’s loss to the Nats was UNACCEPTABLE.  Mets fans deserve better.  

Yes, it's that time already.
 
Jerry and Omar, you're on notice.

FanFave wants to know your thoughts.  Please email me at fanfave@classactsports.com
 
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