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Wise Investment: Justin Verlander

Tigers General Manager Dave Dombrowski held somewhat of a fire sale this offseason.  He traded 26-year-old All-Star Edwin Jackson, a power pitcher who logged 214 innings last year.  He chose not to re-sign All-Star second baseman Placido Polanco, who won two Gold Gloves as a Tiger.  And, he swapped Curtis Granderson, arguably the face of the franchise since 2006, for prospects.
 
Detroit will be missing much of its former nucleus, but that doesn’t mean that it won’t be able to compete in the American League Central.  The reason:  Justin Verlander. 

The city of Detroit breathed a collective sigh of relief February 4 when Verlander inked an $80 million deal that would keep him in a Tiger uniform through 2014.  Verlander is one of the few remnants of the 2006 team that surprised the baseball world and marched to the World Series.  He won 17 games as a rookie that season, showing flashes of his true potential.  Since then, all he has done is post a 48-32 record, pitched in an All-Star game and thrown a no-hitter. 

The scary part for the rest of Major League Baseball?  He just turned 27.  Moreover, his stuff is only getting better.  His fastball averaged 95.6 mph last season, the second best among major league starting pitchers.  He also sports a knee-buckling curveball and a devastating changeup in his repertoire, both of which helped him to lead the majors in strikeouts last year with 269.

Verlander will once again be featured in a rotation of young, power arms in 2010.  He headlines a 1-2-3 punch that also includes 21-year-old Rick Porcello, who won 14 games as a rookie last year, and Max Scherzer, a right-hander who struck out 174 for Arizona last season.  While Porcello is expected to make tremendous strides in his 2010 campaign, Scherzer has failed to impress this spring.  He has allowed 10 hits in 2.1 innings with an ERA over 30. 

After Porcello and Scherzer, the rotation has a few additional question marks.  Jeremy Bonderman, the former phenom who struck out 202 batters in 2006, is looking to make the starting rotation after missing most of the last three seasons with a hodgepodge of injuries.  And Dontrelle Willis, the one-time Marlins ace who suffered from an anxiety disorder the last two seasons, is still struggling to find the strike zone.  Armando Galarraga and Nate Robertson are also battling for spots in the rotation, but neither has been able to repeat strong 2008 and 2006 seasons, respectively.

So, despite tremendous potential from the front-end of the rotation, little is certain in the Tigers’ pitching staff besides Verlander.  The youth and injury history among Detroit’s starting pitchers will force Verlander to continue to eat innings.  Last season he threw 240 frames over 35 starts, as Manager Jim Leyland rode his powerful right arm to keep the Tigers in contention down the stretch.  Both those numbers led the majors.  If Verlander can’t continue to log innings at such a furious pace, the Detroit rotation will be in trouble, especially with a makeshift bullpen that is relying largely on the re-emergence of Guitar Hero legend Joel Zumaya.

Last year, Verlander showed that he is one of the premier pitchers in baseball.  His performance down the stretch - 6-2 in his last nine starts - was perhaps the only reason the Tigers even made it to their one-game playoff against the Twins. 

Verlander’s five-year commitment ensures that he will be vying for the AL Cy Young Award with Felix Hernandez until at least 2014. While Verlander has yet to become the best pitcher in baseball, he may be the most valuable.  Leyland’s pitching staff has plenty of talent, but only one ace.  In 2010, as Verlander goes, so go the Detroit Tigers.